There are reports that Abu Musab al-Zarqawi may have blown up a Mosul safehouse where he was besieged by US and Iraqi forces rather than be taken alive.
Don't jump for joy yet. There have been both false reports of his death and actual near captures before.
It is worth noting, however, that Debka reports a US force was led to the terror chief's hiding place by an intelligence tip on the same day Zarqawi's clan in Jordan renounced him in several Jordanian newspapers.
Giving credit where credit is due, I first began following this story yesterday here.
The rumored death of Zarqawi and the repudiation by his clan comes just two days after Zarqawi threatened a general assault on Jordan in a 26 minute audiotape.
Question: Did King Abdullah pressure or entice the Khalayleh family of the prominent Bani Hassan clan, from which Zarqawi hails, to give the terror chief up?
Also, in the audiotape, released Friday, Zarqawi threatened to kill Abdullah for Jordan's closeinvolvement with the CIA in counterterror operations.
Thus, this question: Were the American boots in Mosul armed with information extracted from Zarqawi's family by Jordanian intelligence which was then provided to the CIA?
However this shakes out, Zarqawi blundered mightily when he attacked the Jordanian capital.
Update at 4:20 pm, EST:
A statement such this, from Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Zayed, certainly makes it easier for the Khalayleh family specifically and Muslims in general to declare Zarqawi persona non grata.
Stratfor (premium content by subscription only, but available via Google News) has this to say:
It is speculative -- but not unreasonable -- to assume that the Jordanians, during their crackdown, secured intelligence on the location of al-Zarqawi's command cell
To rephrase the question: Were the American boots in Mosul armed with information extracted from Zarqawi's family, or from his Jordanian assets, by Jordanian intelligence which was then provided to the CIA?
Debka reports that "US forces and forensic experts are examining the bodies of eight high-ranking al Qaeda leaders in Mosul to find out if their chief Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is among them."
Fox News reported earlier that Jordan supplied the United States with a sample of Zarqawi's DNA a year ago. Fox also reported that Zarqawi is known to have an explosives-packed vest always on hand.
AP reports the White House is cool to the possibility of Zarqawi's death.
"Trent Duffy, a White House spokesman, said reports of al-Zarqawi's death were 'highly unlikely and not credible.'"
If, in fact, Zarqawi has been liquidated, confirmation by Washington will be slow in coming for as Stratfor points out, "the last thing the United States is going to do at this point is claim al-Zarqawi's head, only to have to withdraw the claim when a tape by him surfaces."
At the same time, AP points out, the "intense resistance" of the surrounded terrorists "suggests an attempt to defend a high-value target."
If Zarqawi is dead, I favor the angle that he was given up by someone in his family.
Given that the Imam of Zarqawi's childhood mosque has branded Zarqawi a kufr and urged "his minions to cooperate with Jordan's intelligence services when they come asking" and that "family members may now seek to kill him," I would think it a very distinct possibility.
The other possibility is that someone in Mosul, perhaps from within his own organization or from within the ranks of his Sunni Baathist allies, ratted him out.
The Qaidist motive: Zarqawi did not heed Zawahiri's directive to cease killing Muslims.
The Sunni insurgency motive: Now that Jalal Talabani is willing to engage the insurgency in dialogue in order to bring them into the political process, Zarqawi becomes an impediment and, therefore, expendable to them.
Another incentive: Zarqawi has been branded an unbeliever and the twenty-five million dollar reward becomes much more appealing.
Update at 10:30 pm, EST:
Evan Kohlmann weighs in: "But, at least for the moment--given what we do know--it seems fair to classify Zarqawi's would-be passing as extremely unlikely. Posted
2:08 PM
by Robert
