ABC News and CNN yesterday reported that Muqtada al-Sadr, fearing attack from US forces or assassination from the more extreme elements within his militia, left Iraq for Iran two to three weeks ago taking some of the leadership of his Madhi Army with him.
Letter Said From PM on Plan To Hide Al-Mahdi Leaders in Iran From US Forces
Originally published on 2/1/2007 by Jihadist Websites -- OSC Report in Arabic
Terrorism: Website Claims Iraqi PM and Al-Sadr Will Hide Al-Mahdi Leaders in Iran from US Forces
On 1 February, a website posted a letter allegedly from Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, marked "Secret, Personal, and Urgent", in which the prime minister, following consultations with his National Security Adviser and cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, decided "to hide the leaders and commanders of Al-Mahdi Army in Iran to keep them from getting arrested or killed by US forces". The alleged letter was dated 14 January 2007, and was signed by the prime minister. The letter was posted without comment.
The OSC report says the letter was posted to a jihadist website. Most likely Sunni. If so, it could be an attempt by Sunni jihadist and/or insurgent elements to discredit Maliki's pledge of religious impartiality in Operation Secure Bagdad. In other words, more fanning of sectarian flames.
The other possibility, the document is genuine and Muqtada has not run with his tail between his legs but has been secreted away in Iran with the blessings of PM Maliki and NSA Mowaffak al-Rubaie. Both belong to the Dawa Party which forged it's ties to the Khomeinists during Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini's exile in Najaf in the late 1970s.
Update: Michael Howard, the Guardian's staff reporter in Baghdad, provides some new information on Sadr's whereabouts:
Senior commanders of the Mahdi army, the militia loyal to the radical Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, have been spirited away to Iran to avoid being targeted in the new security push in Baghdad, a high-level Iraqi official told the Guardian yesterday.
On the day the Iraqi government formally launched its crackdown on insurgents and amid disputed claims about the whereabouts of Mr Sadr, the official said the Mahdi army leadership had withdrawn across the border into Iran to regroup and retrain.
"Over the last three weeks, they [Iran] have taken away from Baghdad the first and second-tier military leaders of the Mahdi army," he said. The aim of the Iranians was to "prevent the dismantling of the infrastructure of the Shia militias" in the Iraqi capital - one of the chief aims of the US-backed security drive.
"The strategy is to lie low until the storm passes, and then let them return and fill the vacuum," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. The Tehran authorities were "playing a waiting game" until the commanders could return to Baghdad and resume their activities. "All indications are that Moqtada is in Iran, but that is not really the point," he added.
I'm guessing that Howard's unnamed source is a Sunni MP whose greatest fear is the return of a formerly ragtag Shiite militia transformed (regrouped and retrained) into professional fighting unit by the mullah regime. Muqtada's whereabouts is not the news here. The point, if the unnamed source is to be believed, is that the Mahdi army leadership is now a protected military asset of Tehran which Khamenei will redeploy to Baghdad once the Americans withdraw.
Nothing shows the power of an American military force than the retreat of its enemies, especially once they understand that the gloves have come off. The Mahdis didn't choose to regroup in Basra or Najaf -- they went to Iran. That speaks volumes about the courage of the Mahdi "army" and the opportunity to end their terrorist grip on Iraq's capital.
True in the short run. But, why stand and fight the most powerful military on earth and face certain annihilation when all one has to do is wait for the Americans to leave?
Finally, Ed, addressing the question of PM Maliki's participation in Sadr's withdrawal in the face of a looming US crackdown, says, "Maliki didn't have to draw him any pictures." I agree, but the difficulty or ease of Sadr and his lieutenants' return to Baghdad will be dictated by any agreement, or lack thereof, between the Dawa party and the Sadrists.
Update:Associated Press quotes an unnamed Sadrist and an adviser to PM Maliki:
An adviser to Iraq's prime minister said Thursday that radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr is in Iran, but denied he fled due to fear of arrest during an escalating security crackdown.
Sami al-Askari said al-Sadr traveled to Iran by land "a few days ago," but gave no further details on how long he would stay in Iran. A member of al-Sadr's bloc in parliament, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of fear of reprisals, said al-Sadr left three weeks ago.
"I confirm that Muqtada al-Sadr is in Iran on a visit," said al-Askari. "But I deny that his visit is a flight."
If Muqtada hasn't fled, then perhaps his exit was arranged. The three weeks time frame fits the The Maliki/Rubaie "hide Muqtada in Iran" scenario.
Tsk. Tsk. Tsk. Maliki is double dealing. Don't be surprised, though. After all, the Iranians were the Dawa Party's patrons long before the US appeared.
Update: I have obtained the Maliki letter and a translation. Posted here. Posted
1:49 AM
by Robert
